Ray White on Iran: What’s Happening, What’s Next?

Sharing the insights of retired CIA officer and long-time Iran watcher, Lexpat’s Senior Global Intelligence Advisor, Ray White.  This post will be updated as new installments are added:

January 13, 2026

What’s taking place in Iran is unprecedented and has captured the world’s attention. The last time we saw Iran in a full state of revolt was 1979. Ironically, protestors were also calling for the return of the Shah (to face justice). 66 US diplomats were taken hostage.

Fast forward to Christmas 1980, I vividly remember tying a yellow ribbon around a tree with my Mom to remember the abducted hostages. Somehow even at that early age, I was hooked on international events and the nightly news. There was an image that has stuck with me — a bumper sticker I saw read, “the Ayatollah is an Ass-a-Holla.” Who needs AI? These were the original memes.

So where are we now? Here is some analysis and predictions:
— Reports suggest between 500 and 12,000 protesters have been killed by security forces. The majority are in their 20s and 30s. They have no memory of 1979; they know only oppression, extreme theocracy, and catastrophic inflation. Iranians are a highly educated people who prize math, science, and literature. This intellectual curiosity has likely led to a deep, collective reflection on their “masters” and their stolen future.
— On January 12, the White House signaled it would enforce 25% tariffs on any partner country assisting Iran—a preemptive warning to Russia and China not to intervene in any would-be US action.
— The Department of State has issued its most serious travel advisory, urging all Americans to depart Iran immediately. In geopolitical terms, this is often the final bell before kinetic action.
— @PenPizzaReport (Pentagon Pizza Report) recently showed a massive spike in late-night deliveries to the Pentagon. History shows that when the USG stops sleeping and starts ordering, major operations are often imminent.
— Protests have spread to at least 207 cities across all 31 provinces. The regime’s response has been a 100% internet blackout, attempting to kill its citizens in silence. Despite this, leaked videos of security forces firing into crowds and rows of body bags trickle out.
— On January 13, POTUS issued a direct call to action via Truth Social, urging Iranian patriots to “take over your institutions” and promising that “Help is on its way.” All meetings with Iranian officials have been canceled until the killing stops.
— The New Moon appears in Tehran on January 18, providing total darkness. The Thin Crescent moon on January 15-16 offers similar cover of darkness. Similar to Operation Midnight Hammer, these are optimal conditions for airstrikes.

What next?

I assess the U.S. is preparing to strike the heart of the regime’s security apparatus— the MOIS, IRGC, MOI, the Basij, or even the Supreme Council. If the administration fails to strike these institutions now, it risks losing all credibility on the global stage. The Ayatollah is 85 and his successor is waiting.

January 14, 2026

What’s Old is New Again, Well Sort Of…

I recently read Daniel Wiener’s Legacy of Ashes, a history of the CIA. One theme hit me: CIA has an excellent track record of changing regimes, but not of regime change. Enter SECSTATE and NATSEC Advisor Marco Rubio, also a student of history.

As recent events in Venezuela show, Rubio is focused on internal stability. CIA assessed that with Maduro gone, leaving the existing instruments of power in place—albeit highly motivated—would reduce the odds of total destabilization. Maduro’s former VP, Delcy Rodríguez, has since assumed the role of Acting President.

Donald Trump understands carrots and sticks better than most. He has used tariffs as both a reward and a weapon to achieve not only his economic goals but foreign policy objectives. The White House has undoubtedly made it 100% clear to Rodríguez what the military, political, and economic consequences will be if she defies the Administration’s goals. A “Chavista,” she is a savvy politician with years of experience negotiating with U.S. oil execs. Survival instincts have kicked in; she has muted her anti-U.S. rhetoric and is rebranding as a moderate. On her Rubio to-do list, removing 10,000 estimated Hezballah members in Venezuela.
What remains is whether, once she stabilizes Venezuela, she will permit open democratic elections.

Carrots and sticks are also at play regarding Iran. There have been protests before, but this time is different. It feels different because it is different. The nuclear program is no longer a viable negotiating tool. Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been decimated. Israel has proven it can strike anyone, anywhere in Iran. Meanwhile, the “cavalry of international pariahs”—Russia and China—appear to be watching history play out like the rest of us.

So what now?

As the clock ticks down, Rubio is likely considering Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the interim ruler of a mullah-free Iran. Here is my reasoning:
— A known quantity, both Pahlavi and his “100-Day Plan” for post-regime collapse are likely being vetted now.
— Westernized, he’s lived for 47 years in DC and speaks fluent English. Educated at USC and trained as a military pilot in Lubbock, TX (God bless Buddy Holly).
— Constitutional Bridge. He acknowledges his role is to lead a transition, not to restore an absolute monarchy. This is critical.
— Iran requires an overhaul. Unlike maintaining the status quo in Venezuela with Rodríguez, Iran needs a complete replacement of its laws and institutions. Pahlavi is a household name.
— Unlike Rodríguez—a complete unknown to the U.S. public—Pahlavi is popular. For Trump, a populist, that clicks.
— Anemoia is a factor. Younger Iranians, oppressed since 1979, feel “Anemoia”—nostalgia for a time they never knew.
— Appeasement is over. Trump spoke with Pahlavi last week; that tells me everything we need to know.

January 23, 2026

IRAN: Here Comes the PMF Cavalry

This week we witnessed a turning point in Iran, the arrival of the popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). In a scene reminiscent of an ISIS invasion, armed gunmen sped through Tehran in an unorganized armada of Toyota Hiluxes. What does this mean? Let’s break it down.

— The PMF was established in Iraq circa 2014 when Iran offered, and Iraqi PM Nuri al-Maliki accepted, loads of loosely formed Shiite militia groups (SMG) to combat ISIS in Iraq. Basically, al-Maliki kicked the U.S. out of Iraq, and Iran filled the vacuum with paramilitary groups. After al-Maliki’s departure as PM, U.S. troops and an international coalition returned to fight ISIS (under Operation Inherent Resolve). As the U.S. presence countering terrorism expanded in Iraq, the SMGs took the back burner; however, with Iran’s full funding, they continued to grow in number.
— With the fall of ISIS circa 2018, Iran directed the SMGs to turn their guns on the U.S. forces. In 2021, I was on the receiving end of one of their rocket attacks. A strange situation, even though funded by Iran, the PMF has an official presence in the government of Iraq (think a state ministry with salaries and pensions, etc.). Today, Iran still calls the shots, except now the PMF has become almost 250,000 strong. Crazy, the regular Iraqi army is 190,000 strong.
— The PMF’s arrival in Tehran to contend with the protestors is an absolute show of force. This also shows how desperate the situation has become. The regime security services aren’t getting it done, so an armada of PMF forces was summoned from Iraq to suppress the protests.
— PMF involvement elevates the existing security situation. They are an armed paramilitary force. They are not nice people. Former PMF leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was killed on 3 January 2020 in a U.S. drone strike along with Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) elite Quds Force. Soleimani was in charge of killing Americans.
— Iran’s proxies are seriously degraded: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Suspect the PMF will fill the proxy void, and more will return to Iran to reinforce the regime. This could also be read as a sign of desperation.
— The PMF is incredibly violent, and I suspect their arrival in large numbers may signal an uptick in renewed aggression toward the protestors. Watch for death tolls, hangings, and overall oppression to increase. By bringing in Arabic-speaking Iraqis, the regime can deploy forces that have no local family ties or hesitation to use force against Iranian civilians.

The arrival of the PMF may signal the mullahs’ last stand. It may also signal an escalation and the end of the regime.

January 30, 2026

IRAN: Here Comes the Armada

This week, for the first time in 40 years, we heard the words “armada” and “flotilla” bandied about. These phrases conjured up images of Sir Francis Drake and Spanish galleons invading England. With any luck, our Armada will fare better, as the Spanish Armada suffered catastrophic losses and Spain was left in the dustbin of history.

The Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG 3), consisting of an aircraft carrier, six guided-missile destroyers, and three littoral combat ships, is currently positioned in the Arabian Sea. The flagship USS Abraham Lincoln is capable of unleashing 50-plus F-35C Lightnings, F-18E/F Super Hornets, and F-18G Growlers against Iran. These planes have stealth and electronic warfare capabilities. Iran will never see them coming. Additionally, there are 35 F-15E Strike Eagles in Jordan and the UAE. For extra credit, the fleet has a combined “magazine” of over 500 Tomahawk missiles ready to fire at a moment’s notice.

With all this in mind, let’s break it down:

— Trump said he won’t repeat Obama’s toothless threat of a red line (in the case of Syria). Suspect Trump will likely go out of his way to ensure there are consequences for Iran’s indiscretions.
— A decades-long tactic, Iran continues to try to negotiate the preservation of their nuclear program, whereas the Administration started dictating terms and expectations. The U.S. is no longer taking Iran’s bait. If Iran doesn’t dismantle its program, the Armada threatens to deliver devastating kinetic action.
— Additionally, Trump promised protesters that help was on the way. The Armada’s overwhelming presence is a signal to the Iranian people to overthrow the regime. If protesters were to again intensify their efforts, and were the regime to crack down, the Armada could respond with kinetic action, decapitating nuclear and regime security targets.
— Iran’s rhetoric has intimated they will attack U.S. military and other assets in the region. It is well known that Iran has a medium-range ballistic missile force (albeit depleted). Of concern is the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) “drone” carrier. It is capable of dispatching deadly swarms of armed drones against U.S. warships. The Bagheri also has 30 fast-attack missile boats, 8 anti-ship cruise missiles, 8 surface-to-air missiles, and mini-submarines. On January 27, the Bagheri was anchored slightly south of Bandar Abbas. Were tempers to flare, suspect the Bagheri will be among the first Iranian assets destroyed by U.S. missiles.
— As of 25 January, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (age 86), has reportedly moved into a fortified underground shelter in Tehran, and his sons Mojtaba and Masoud are running Iran, they exert significant influence over the IRGC and the Basij paramilitary forces. Khamenei’s relocation signals Iran’s fear of an imminent attack.

The pieces have been assembled. Any opportunity of crisis could quickly set events in motion.