Ray White on Iran: What’s Happening, What’s Next?

Sharing the insights of retired CIA officer and long-time Iran watcher, Lexpat’s Senior Global Intelligence Advisor, Ray White.  This post will be updated as new installments are added:

January 13, 2026

What’s taking place in Iran is unprecedented and has captured the world’s attention. The last time we saw Iran in a full state of revolt was 1979. Ironically, protestors were also calling for the return of the Shah (to face justice). 66 US diplomats were taken hostage.

Fast forward to Christmas 1980, I vividly remember tying a yellow ribbon around a tree with my Mom to remember the abducted hostages. Somehow even at that early age, I was hooked on international events and the nightly news. There was an image that has stuck with me — a bumper sticker I saw read, “the Ayatollah is an Ass-a-Holla.” Who needs AI? These were the original memes.

So where are we now? Here is some analysis and predictions:
— Reports suggest between 500 and 12,000 protesters have been killed by security forces. The majority are in their 20s and 30s. They have no memory of 1979; they know only oppression, extreme theocracy, and catastrophic inflation. Iranians are a highly educated people who prize math, science, and literature. This intellectual curiosity has likely led to a deep, collective reflection on their “masters” and their stolen future.
— On January 12, the White House signaled it would enforce 25% tariffs on any partner country assisting Iran—a preemptive warning to Russia and China not to intervene in any would-be US action.
— The Department of State has issued its most serious travel advisory, urging all Americans to depart Iran immediately. In geopolitical terms, this is often the final bell before kinetic action.
— @PenPizzaReport (Pentagon Pizza Report) recently showed a massive spike in late-night deliveries to the Pentagon. History shows that when the USG stops sleeping and starts ordering, major operations are often imminent.
— Protests have spread to at least 207 cities across all 31 provinces. The regime’s response has been a 100% internet blackout, attempting to kill its citizens in silence. Despite this, leaked videos of security forces firing into crowds and rows of body bags trickle out.
— On January 13, POTUS issued a direct call to action via Truth Social, urging Iranian patriots to “take over your institutions” and promising that “Help is on its way.” All meetings with Iranian officials have been canceled until the killing stops.
— The New Moon appears in Tehran on January 18, providing total darkness. The Thin Crescent moon on January 15-16 offers similar cover of darkness. Similar to Operation Midnight Hammer, these are optimal conditions for airstrikes.

What next?

I assess the U.S. is preparing to strike the heart of the regime’s security apparatus— the MOIS, IRGC, MOI, the Basij, or even the Supreme Council. If the administration fails to strike these institutions now, it risks losing all credibility on the global stage. The Ayatollah is 85 and his successor is waiting.

January 14, 2026

What’s Old is New Again, Well Sort Of…

I recently read Daniel Wiener’s Legacy of Ashes, a history of the CIA. One theme hit me: CIA has an excellent track record of changing regimes, but not of regime change. Enter SECSTATE and NATSEC Advisor Marco Rubio, also a student of history.

As recent events in Venezuela show, Rubio is focused on internal stability. CIA assessed that with Maduro gone, leaving the existing instruments of power in place—albeit highly motivated—would reduce the odds of total destabilization. Maduro’s former VP, Delcy Rodríguez, has since assumed the role of Acting President.

Donald Trump understands carrots and sticks better than most. He has used tariffs as both a reward and a weapon to achieve not only his economic goals but foreign policy objectives. The White House has undoubtedly made it 100% clear to Rodríguez what the military, political, and economic consequences will be if she defies the Administration’s goals. A “Chavista,” she is a savvy politician with years of experience negotiating with U.S. oil execs. Survival instincts have kicked in; she has muted her anti-U.S. rhetoric and is rebranding as a moderate. On her Rubio to-do list, removing 10,000 estimated Hezballah members in Venezuela.
What remains is whether, once she stabilizes Venezuela, she will permit open democratic elections.

Carrots and sticks are also at play regarding Iran. There have been protests before, but this time is different. It feels different because it is different. The nuclear program is no longer a viable negotiating tool. Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been decimated. Israel has proven it can strike anyone, anywhere in Iran. Meanwhile, the “cavalry of international pariahs”—Russia and China—appear to be watching history play out like the rest of us.

So what now?

As the clock ticks down, Rubio is likely considering Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the interim ruler of a mullah-free Iran. Here is my reasoning:
-A known quantity, both Pahlavi and his “100-Day Plan” for post-regime collapse are likely being vetted now.
-Westernized, he’s lived for 47 years in DC and speaks fluent English. Educated at USC and trained as a military pilot in Lubbock, TX (God bless Buddy Holly).
-Constitutional Bridge. He acknowledges his role is to lead a transition, not to restore an absolute monarchy. This is critical.
– Iran requires an overhaul. Unlike maintaining the status quo in Venezuela with Rodríguez, Iran needs a complete replacement of its laws and institutions. Pahlavi is a household name.
-Unlike Rodríguez—a complete unknown to the U.S. public—Pahlavi is popular. For Trump, a populist, that clicks.
-Anemoia is a factor. Younger Iranians, oppressed since 1979, feel “Anemoia”—nostalgia for a time they never knew.
-Appeasement is over. Trump spoke with Pahlavi last week; that tells me everything we need to know.